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2023 Vol.35, Issue 4 Preview Page

Research Article

Analyzing Impacts of Climate Change on Regional Fruit Production

기후변화가 지역 과수 생산에 미치는 영향 분석

Euijune Kim1
,
Min Jiang2*
,
Dongyeong Jin3
김 의준1
,
지 앙민2*
,
진 동영3
1Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development and Research Institute of Agricultural and Life Science, Seoul National University, Seoul, 08826, Korea
2Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, 350002, China
3Researcher, Spatial Economics Laboratory, Seoul National University, Seoul, 08826, Korea
1서울대학교 농경제사회학부 교수
2푸젠농림대학교 조교수
3서울대학교 공간경제연구실 연구원
*Corresponding Author
31 December 2023. pp. 382-397
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Abstract

This study analyzed the effects of climate change on apple and pear production. The fruit production function was estimated with spatial econometric models. The regional production changes in 2040 according to climate change scenarios were simulated based on the spatial error model. First, the production of apples and pears will decrease due to climate change, with apples in Gyeongbuk and pears in Chungnam expected to experience the largest declines. Second, the production of apples and pears will decrease by 4.7 times and 2.0 times when temperature and precipitation or sunshine duration changes, respectively, are considered compared to when only temperature is considered an independent variable in the simulation model. Finally, production losses of 70.934%－97.048% and 90.984%－98.595% are expected for apples and pears, respectively, when the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction policy was implemented compared to that without the GHG reduction policy. This study is expected to contribute to providing references for the local government to implement GHG reduction strategies and cope with the reduction of fruit production due to climate change.

Keywords
Climate change
Fruit production
Greenhouse gas reduction
Spatial econometric model
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Information
  • Publisher :Agriculture and Life Sciences Research Institute, Kangwon National University
  • Publisher(Ko) :강원대학교 농업생명과학대학 농업생명과학연구원
  • Journal Title :Journal of Agricultural, Life and Environmental Sciences
  • Journal Title(Ko) :농업생명환경연구
  • Volume : 35
  • No :4
  • Pages :382-397
  • Received Date : 2023-08-16
  • Revised Date : 2023-11-01
  • Accepted Date : 2023-11-10
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.22698/jales.20230031
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