Journal of Agricultural, Life and Environmental Sciences ISSN:2233-8322(Print) 2508-870X(Online)

The Philippine coconut industry, a significant contributor to the country’s agricultural sector, plays a central role in the national economy, providing 60% of the global coconut supply and employing 2.5 million farmers. However, the industry faces a number of challenges, particularly the fragmented policies that influence the productivity and farm gate prices of coconuts. The objectives of this study were to estimate the effects of these conservation policies on coconut farm prices, evaluate the impact of actual and counterfactual events, and provide policy insights for broader interventions beneficial to the coconut industry. We investigated the impacts of two conservation policies (RA 8048 in 1996 and RA 10593 in 2014) on coconut farm prices using a synthetic control method, which was used to construct a synthetic coconut model from other agricultural commodities to compare the actual and counterfactual price trends. The results revealed that prior policy implementation, actual and synthetic coconut prices followed similar upward trends, whereas subsequent to enactment of the policies, actual coconut prices declined and synthetic prices continued to rise, indicating the negative effects of conservation policies. These policies contributed to enhancing coconut supply, thereby driving down farm gate prices in line with the economic supply–demand theory. Furthermore, by revealing significant post-policy price disparities, placebo tests confirmed the validity of the results. On the basis of our findings in this study, we conclude that conservation policies reduce coconut prices, and we accordingly recommend continued interventions to stabilize supply and ensure global competitiveness. Strengthening the coconut value chain via technological adoption, community empowerment, and government support is essential for improving farmers’ income and industry sustainability.